Open Access
Authors: SHUBHADA S. PATIL
Registration ID: 107095 | Published Paper ID: WBL7095
Year: Sep- 2026 | Volume: 4 | Issue: 1
Approved ISSN: 2581-8503 | Country: Delhi, India
Page No.: 732-752
Vol. 4
Issue 1
September 2026
Pages
732
– 752
[1]See Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, The Yield Curve as a Predictor of U.S. Recessions, 2 Current Issues in Economics and Finance, no. 7, 1, 1-6 (Fed. Rsrv. Bank of N.Y. June 1996) (explaining the predictive content of the ten-year Treasury minus three-month Treasury spread); Stanley Fischer, Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?, 38 Fin. & Dev., no. 2, 18, 18-21 (June 2001) (discussing the policy constraints created by different exchange-rate regimes).[2]Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, The Yield Curve as a Predictor of U.S. Recessions, 2 Current Issues in Economics and Finance, no. 7, 1, 1-6 (Fed. Rsrv. Bank of N.Y. June 1996); Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators, 80 Rev. Econ. & Stat. 45, 45-61 (1998).[3]Maurice Obstfeld, Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs Among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility, 87 Rev. Econ. & Stat. 423, 423-38 (2005) (providing historical evidence that fixed exchange rates, capital mobility, and independent monetary policy cannot all be simultaneously maximized).[4]Int’l Monetary Fund, IMF Concludes Article IV Consultation with Thailand, Public Information Notice No. 00/5 (Jan. 20, 2000); Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Annual Report 1998 (1999); Int’l Monetary Fund, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Staff Report for the 1998 Article IV Consultation, IMF Country Report No. 99/34 (Apr. 1999).[5]Campbell R. Harvey, The Real Term Structure and Consumption Growth, 22 J. Fin. Econ. 305, 305-33 (1988); Campbell R. Harvey, Forecasts of Economic Growth from the Bond and Stock Markets, 45 Fin. Analysts J., no. 5, 38, 38-45 (1989); Estrella & Mishkin, supra note 2, at 45-61.[6]Obstfeld, Shambaugh & Taylor, supra note 3, at 423-38; Fischer, supra note 1, at 18-21.[7]Paul Krugman, A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises, 11 J. Money, Credit & Banking 311, 311-25 (1979) (formalizing reserve depletion under an unsustainable fixed exchange rate); Independent Evaluation Office, Int’l Monetary Fund, The IMF and Argentina, 1991-2001 (2004) (documenting the interaction of the currency regime, debt, banking vulnerability, and recession in Argentina).[8]Estrella & Mishkin, supra note 2, at 45-61; Int’l Monetary Fund, IMF Concludes Article IV Consultation with Thailand, Public Information Notice No. 00/5 (Jan. 20, 2000).[9]Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, The Yield Curve as a Predictor of U.S. Recessions, 2 Current Issues in Economics and Finance, no. 7, 1, 1-6 (Fed. Rsrv. Bank of N.Y. June 1996); Estrella & Mishkin, supra note 2, at 45-61.[10]Int’l Monetary Fund, IMF Concludes Article IV Consultation with Thailand, Public Information Notice No. 00/5 (Jan. 20, 2000) (reviewing the buildup to the 1997 crisis and the exhaustion of usable reserves during defence of the baht); Kingdom of Thailand, Letter of Intent to the International Monetary Fund (Aug. 14, 1997).[11]Int’l Monetary Fund, Thailand: Statistical Appendix, IMF Country Report No. 00/20, tbls. 1, 28 (Feb. 2000) (reporting gross international reserve data); Kingdom of Thailand, Letter of Intent to the International Monetary Fund (Aug. 14, 1997) (setting programme definitions for net international reserves and accounting for forward foreign-exchange positions).[12]Int’l Monetary Fund, IMF Concludes Article IV Consultation with Thailand, Public Information Notice No. 98/44 (June 25, 1998) (describing the contraction in manufacturing and the recession outlook); Int’l Monetary Fund, Thailand: Statistical Appendix, IMF Country Report No. 00/20 (Feb. 2000) (reporting subsequent national-account outcomes).[13]Independent Evaluation Office, Int’l Monetary Fund, The IMF and Argentina, 1991-2001, Executive Summary & chs. 1-2 (2004); Argentina, Ley de Convertibilidad del Austral, Law No. 23,928, B.O. Mar. 28, 1991.[14]Int’l Monetary Fund, IMF Concludes 2002 Article IV Consultation with Argentina, Public Information Notice No. 03/88 (July 28, 2003) (reviewing the collapse of convertibility, sovereign default, exchange-rate adjustment, and deep output contraction); Independent Evaluation Office, Int’l Monetary Fund, The IMF and Argentina, 1991-2001 (2004) (discussing dollarisation and balance-sheet vulnerabilities).[15]Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Annual Report 1998 (1999) (describing the operation of the Linked Exchange Rate System and the automatic monetary adjustment mechanism); Int’l Monetary Fund, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Staff Report for the 1998 Article IV Consultation, IMF Country Report No. 99/34 (Apr. 1999).[16]Int’l Monetary Fund, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Staff Report for the 1998 Article IV Consultation, IMF Country Report No. 99/34 (Apr. 1999) (reporting elevated Hong Kong dollar interest rates and the domestic effects of regional financial stress); Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Annual Report 1998 (1999).[17]Reserve Bank of India, Annual Report 2013-14, chs. II & III (2014) (describing the policy response to exchange-market volatility and liquidity pressure during the taper episode); Government of India, Ministry of Finance, Annual Report 2013-14 (2014).[18]Reserve Bank of India, Annual Report 2022-23, chs. II, III & V (2023) (discussing global monetary tightening, the cumulative 250-basis-point repo-rate increase, capital-flow conditions, and movements in the rupee and effective exchange-rate indices).[19]See generally Fischer, supra note 1, at 18-21; Int’l Monetary Fund, Public Information Notice No. 00/5, supra note 10; Independent Evaluation Office, supra note 13; Hong Kong Monetary Authority, supra note 15; Reserve Bank of India, supra note 18. The comparison supports a regime-dependent interpretation of where external monetary stress becomes visible.[20]Maurice Obstfeld, Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, Financial Instability, Reserves, and Central Bank Swap Lines in the Panic of 2008, 99 Am. Econ. Rev. 480, 480-86 (2009) (linking reserve holdings and financial vulnerability to exchange-rate performance during the global panic).[21]Obstfeld, Shambaugh & Taylor, supra note 3, at 423-38; Fischer, supra note 1, at 18-21.[22]Reserve Bank of India Act, No. 2 of 1934, §§ 45ZA-45ZB, INDIA CODE (as amended); Foreign Exchange Management Act, No. 42 of 1999, §§ 3, 10-11, INDIA CODE; Government Securities Act, No. 38 of 2006, INDIA CODE.[23]See Estrella & Mishkin, supra note 2, at 45-61; Obstfeld, Shambaugh & Taylor, supra note 20, at 480-86; Krugman, supra note 7, at 311-25.[24]Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Annual Report 1998 (1999); Int’l Monetary Fund, Hong Kong SAR: Staff Report for the 1998 Article IV Consultation, IMF Country Report No. 99/34 (1999).[25]See Estrella & Mishkin, supra note 2, at 45-61; Obstfeld, Shambaugh & Taylor, supra note 3, at 423-38; Reserve Bank of India, Annual Report 2022-23 (2023).
DOI:
https://www.doi-ds.org/doilink/09.2026-33982678/YIELD-CURVE DISTORTIONS, CURRENCY STRESS AND RECES